ROI has developed a model of the California market that we believe is the most accurate assessment of future offset supply of offsets in California. This model evaluates not only the standard probabilities of supply from approved and unapproved protocols but also the probabilities of regulatory developments. The output from the model is a risk adjusted projection of offset supply along with the distribution of this supply. The model provides the basis for evaluating expected supply risk adjusted but also the tail risk, that is the low probability events which in any market are either the most profitable or costly (black swan events).
This supply model of offsets is combined with our demand model -- the likely emission scenario also risk adjusted to give a nuanced view of the future emissions market.
Sample output is shown below: