ROI's market analysis is driven by a set of analytic models mainly concentrated on the California market. These models are unique and much more advanced than comparable models offered by competitors.
The methodology of the models is based on the concept of risk adjusted and timing. For example if the analogy is taken of a football game, the probability of scoring a touchdown in a drive depends on many factors each with their own probability distribution. From the 10 yard line, the probability is lower and the timing of the touchdown is very uncertain, eg whether it will occur in 1, 2, 5, 10 or so minutes from now if it occurs at all. As the ball approaches the goal line the probability of scoring increases and the the timing estimate becomes more precise. In all cases, there will be a probability distribution associated with the outcome and the timing. Furthermore, the probability distributions will change over time, becoming tighter as the goal becomes nearer.
This philosophy on uncertainty and timing underlies the modeling of ROI. While the models give an expected outcome it is risk adjusted with a degree of stated uncertainty. As more information becomes available, the estimate is tighten with the distribution becoming narrower.
Currently with respect to the market analysis of California, ROI has three related models. One model estimates the risks and uncertainties on the delivery of offset projects associated with a particular methodology (RECOP), a Social Accounting Matrix model used to examine the macroeconomic interrelation of sectors of the California economy (ROSE) and a market simulation model with dynamic pricing and hedging (REMAP).
The results of these models will be presented in periodic blogs and papers.